Market Analysis
By Naga
Markets took a breather this week, moving mostly sideways as traders processed the latest economic data and waited for a stronger read on where global growth is headed. There’s still a mix of hope and caution out there—optimism about recovery, but inflation and sticky interest rates are keeping everyone on their toes.
By EBC
Oil prices were stable on Friday, following a rise, as worries over reduced Iraqi supply clashed with fears of lower demand from US tariffs.
On July 17, dovish Fed commentary drove the US Dollar lower, lifting major currencies and risk sentiment globally. EUR/USD climbed above 1.1600, GBP/USD neared 1.3450, and AUD/USD gained traction above 0.6800. Markets welcomed signs of US-China trade stability, while attention now shifts to upcoming U.S. consumer sentiment data and Eurozone inflation. With the Fed turning more cautious, traders are recalibrating rate cut expectations, favoring higher-yielding and risk-sensitive currencies in the short term.
By EBC
Invesco's survey shows global sovereign funds are boosting their allocation to Chinese assets, particularly in technology.
By EBC
The yen fell Thursday as Trump moves to sack Fed Chair Powell. Opinion polls suggest PM Ishiba's coalition may lose its majority in the upper house.
On July 16, 2025, oil slipped below the $66 mark as geopolitical fears surrounding Russia eased after the White House softened its stance. Meanwhile, silver extended its rally toward $38.00 amid safe-haven demand, and the New Zealand Dollar held firm above 0.5950 in a risk-on environment. Traders eye the upcoming U.S. PPI and UK CPI releases for direction, with central banks still walking a fine line between inflation control and growth support. Market tone remains cautious but constructive, especially for commodities and risk-linked currencies.
By EBC
The DAX 40 dropped for the fourth session, hit by financial and healthcare stocks. The EU made progress in securing trade deals with new partners.
On July 16, 2025, oil slipped below the $66 mark as geopolitical fears surrounding Russia eased after the White House softened its stance. Meanwhile, silver extended its rally toward $38.00 amid safe-haven demand, and the New Zealand Dollar held firm above 0.5950 in a risk-on environment. Traders eye the upcoming U.S. PPI and UK CPI releases for direction, with central banks still walking a fine line between inflation control and growth support. Market tone remains cautious but constructive, especially for commodities and risk-linked currencies.
By EBC
Trump’s first 6 months bring tariffs, tax cuts, Fed tension, and crypto moves, driving uncertainty and reshaping global markets, says EBC.
China’s Q2 GDP surprise at 5.2% YoY sparked a positive reaction across global markets on July 15, 2025. Commodity currencies like AUD and NZD advanced modestly, while Gold hovered near $3,350 ahead of key U.S. CPI data. The Japanese Yen weakened despite safe-haven flows, as 10-year JGB yields hit their highest since 2008, highlighting BoJ-Fed policy divergence. Market sentiment improved across Asia-Pacific, with attention now shifting to U.S. inflation prints and central bank signals to guide risk appetite in the sessions ahead.
By EBC
Silver was little changed on Tuesday after Trump escalated trade tensions with Mexico, the top producer. It has gained about 32% this year.
By EBC
EBC brings supplies and meals to 55 children at Klong Toey’s Foundation for Slum Child Care, supporting early childhood care in Bangkok’s largest slum.
By Naga
Another week, another round of mixed signals. Inflation is still hanging around, but economic data hints at a slowdown. The result? Markets are stuck in a holding pattern—again.
By FP Markets
In addition to ongoing US trade tariff developments, the key macroeconomic print to watch this week will be the June US CPI inflation data (Consumer Price Index). This follows the better-than-expected June US jobs report, which saw unemployment fall to 4.1% – albeit influenced by a drop in the labour force – and job growth rise to 147,000.
By EBC
The euro hit a 3-week low Monday, and the Mexican peso weakened as Trump threatened 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico imports starting in August.
On July 14, global markets turned risk-off after President Trump revived tariff threats targeting the EU and Canada. Gold surged past $3,350 on safe-haven bids, while USD/CAD spiked near 1.3700. EUR/USD rebounded toward 1.1700, and NZD/USD slid below 0.6000 ahead of key Chinese trade data. GBP/USD remained pressured around 1.3500 amid Brexit silence. With U.S. retail sales and China’s external sector in focus, traders brace for a volatile week shaped by data and trade rhetoric.
By EBC
The Canadian dollar fell Friday as Trump planned 15–20% blanket tariffs on most trade partners, signaling more global trade upheaval.
On July 10, silver extends gains toward $36.50 amid rising macro uncertainty and safe-haven demand. The US Dollar weakens, boosting AUD and NZD. USD/JPY trims early losses as BoJ hike hopes fade, while EUR/JPY retreats from highs on softening sentiment. Markets brace for US Jobless Claims to guide the next leg in global risk and Fed rate expectations.
By EBC
Oil prices fell Thursday after Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil. OPEC+ agreed to speed up output hikes despite global economic uncertainty.
On July 10, silver extends gains toward $36.50 amid rising macro uncertainty and safe-haven demand. The US Dollar weakens, boosting AUD and NZD. USD/JPY trims early losses as BoJ hike hopes fade, while EUR/JPY retreats from highs on softening sentiment. Markets brace for US Jobless Claims to guide the next leg in global risk and Fed rate expectations.
By Deriv
So far in 2025, what looks like market chaos has actually been a goldmine - at least for the brave. Every wobble, every sharp drop, every so-called “bloodbath” has turned into a buying opportunity. And those who dared to dive in? They’re laughing all the way to the bank.
With the S&P 500 at record highs and tech stocks like Nvidia bouncing back stronger after every fall, one question keeps coming up: is buying the dip not just working 0 but winning?
Nasdaq record highs
Let’s start with the numbers. According to analysts, if you’d simply bought the Nasdaq 100 every time it had a down day this year, you’d be up roughly 32% - the best result for that strategy in five years. For context, this time last year, that return sat at a modest 5%.
The pace we’re seeing now puts 2025 on track to become the best year for dip-buying since at least 1985. Yes, even better than the bubbly days of 1999.
And it’s not like this has been a calm ride either. Out of the 124 trading days so far, the Nasdaq’s been down in 51 of them. That’s a whole lot of red candles - but also a whole lot of green rebounds.
Nvidia stock dips harder - and snaps back faster
If the market as a whole has rewarded dip-buyers, Nvidia has practically crowned them royalty.
The AI darling kicked off the year under pressure from China’s DeepSeek, a cheaper challenger in the machine-learning space. Then came the meltdown: on 27 January, Nvidia logged its worst-ever single-day drop - a brutal 17% fall. Ouch.
But that pain didn’t last. By early February, the stock had bounced back 20% heading into earnings. It wasn’t a one-off either. In April, Nvidia followed the market lower again, this time on fears surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs. Shares tumbled 33% to their lowest point of the year.
And then, you guessed it, another rally. A steep, unapologetic one. Since bottoming out, Nvidia has gone on to set new record highs, with shares rising 12% in just the past month. It’s been a dream for traders with the stomach for sharp drops and the conviction to hold through them.
Nvidia keeps hitting the Wall Street news
This isn’t just retail traders on Reddit throwing darts. Wall Street is increasingly convinced Nvidia’s dip-buying window is more than just luck.
Citi recently raised its price target to $190, suggesting a further 15% upside from current levels. One firm went even bolder, pegging a target at $250 - a price that would value Nvidia at a mind-bending $6 trillion.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Why the enthusiasm? Simple: governments are buying AI infrastructure like it’s the new electricity. Citi’s analysts say sovereign demand alone could already be contributing billions of dollars in revenue this year. They expect it to ramp up even more in 2026.
The AI gold rush is real
At Nvidia’s recent generative AI conference, insiders floated a potential benchmark for national AI infrastructure: one supercomputer or 10,000 GPUs per 100,000 government employees. Think about that. That kind of buildout could keep Nvidia busy - and profitable - for years.
The company’s Blackwell GB200 chips are already powering most of these projects, and Citi believes the rollout is only accelerating. Supply chain concerns? Largely resolved. Rack buildouts? “Happening at a rapid pace.” Even the transition to next-gen GB300 chips is expected to be smooth, thanks to lessons learned from previous launches.
Global AI arms race: Green lights, with a hint of risk
Citi now expects Nvidia’s data centre revenue to rise 5% in FY 2027 and 11% in FY 2028, with networking sales surging even faster. Margins are expected to stabilise in the mid-70% range, which is excellent for a company scaling at this pace.
Source: Seeking Alpha
That said, there are still clouds on the horizon. Trump’s administration could reintroduce export restrictions - particularly with scrutiny on Malaysia and Thailand for possible indirect shipments to China. Regulatory risks remain real, especially for a company at the heart of a global AI arms race.
Dollar-cost averaging vs timing/buying the dip
If your timing’s been good this year, it’s not even close - buying the dip has been a beast. The market’s bouncing back with a vengeance, and Nvidia’s chart looks more like a trampoline than a trendline. Add in soaring demand, bullish analyst upgrades, and a possible sprint to a $4 trillion market cap, and it’s easy to see why traders are so confident.
But here’s the unfortunate twist, a Vanguard study analyzing 90 years of S&P 500 data, revealing that even perfect market timing to "buy the dip" underperformed dollar-cost averaging (DCA), challenging the common investor belief that timing dips maximises returns
Source: Dollars and data.com, Christy capital
So, in a 2025 where buying the dip and holding your ground, especially with stocks like Nvidia, has rewarded you. the market’s been more than happy to reward you - the strategy has shown vulnerability in the long-term.
But as far as 2025 is concerned, volatility hasn’t been the enemy this year - it’s been the opportunity.
Nvidia outlook
At the time of writing, Nvidia is showing signs of buy-side exhaustion after a significant rally, hinting at a potential reversal. However, the volume bars show that dominant buy pressure over the past few days has been met by disproportionate sell-side pushback, hinting that an upside move could still be on.
If we see an uptick, prices could encounter resistance at the $161.55 resistance level. Conversely, if we see a slump, prices could find support floors at the $141.75, $132.75, and $103.35 support levels.
Is trading Nvidia dips a potential winning strategy? You can speculate on Nvidia’s price trajectory with a Deriv MT5 account.By Octa
There's the danger that the US government's imposition of sanctions via the US Dollar (USD) as the world's leading currency could cast doubt on its status if the countries that use the USD as an international transaction medium no longer support such US sanctions. But is the USD really at risk?
By VT Markets
Markets remain cautious as the US ramps up trade tensions, with fresh tariffs and tough rhetoric driving sharp moves across currencies and commodities. The developments underscore how political shifts continue to influence global market dynamics and investor sentiment.
By EBC
As of June 27, foreign capital has flowed into Japan's stock market for 13 weeks, with investments continuing to rise despite market challenges.
By EBC
Gold prices hovered near a one-week low on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger dollar, with the Fed's meeting minutes set for release later today.
On July 9, oil jumps above $67.00 on renewed Red Sea attacks, while copper surges past $5.50 after Trump vows 50% tariffs if re-elected. DXY edges up past 97.50 ahead of FOMC Minutes. China’s CPI surprises slightly at 0.1% YoY, offering mixed signals. AUD/USD trades flat, and markets brace for further volatility driven by Fed outlook and trade policy threats.
By FP Markets
With US jobs data now in the rear-view mirror, the market’s focus this week shifts to US President Donald Trump’s self-imposed reciprocal tariff deadline on 9 July.
By FXPro
The crypto market capitalisation retains its weekly growth of approximately 1.8%, losing about 0.6% over the last 24 hours to $3.35 trillion. This is another round of buyer indecision at high levels, even though declines were actively bought up. At the same time, capitalisation continues to move away from its 200-day moving average, indicating continued bullish sentiment.
By LiteFinance
At 08:00 (GMT+2), Germany will publish May data on the trade balance — an indicator that records the difference between the number of payments for exported and imported goods. An increase from 14.6 billion euros to 18.1 billion euros is forecast, which is likely to support the eurozone's single currency.
By EBC
Sterling reached its highest since October 2021 after Trump announced new tariffs on Japan, South Korea, and others, effective August 1.
On July 8, gold slips below $3,350 as risk appetite improves. Silver holds steady near $36.90, while AUD/USD rises to 0.6855 ahead of the RBA decision. USD/JPY surges above 161.00 as BoJ tightening bets fade. PBOC sets USD/CNY at 7.1534, signaling stability. Focus now shifts to US CPI, central bank guidance, and trade progress for market direction.
By Naga
With the U.S. markets closing early Thursday and fully shut Friday for the July 4th holiday, this week was a slow grind. Volume was light, volatility was minimal, and most traders were in "wait-and-see" mode.
On July 7, gold slips below $3,350 as the USD strengthens and traders take profit amid tariff-related jitters. Silver lingers under $37. EUR/USD and NZD/USD retreat on weak sentiment, while USD/CAD rises above 1.3900 as oil weakens. Markets brace for key data including US CPI and Eurozone retail sales, with Fed speeches also in focus.
By EBC
European shares fell Friday due to declines in banks and mining stocks, as attention shifts to the July deadline for a trade deal with the White House.
By EBC
U.S. stock market sentiment is strong, with stocks hitting new highs as investors return and earnings surpass expectations.
By LiteFinance
At 12:00 (GMT+2), Canada will release its June Leading Index, which includes assessments of twelve indicators such as machinery orders and stock prices. If the monthly value is adjusted upward from the current 0.10%, this will act as a catalyst for strengthening the position of the national currency.
By Tickmill
Daily Market Outlook, July 4, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
By EBC
Oil prices were steady as a strong job market supported the Fed’s decision, with focus on Trump’s tariff plans for various countries.
On July 4, strong U.S. jobs data boosts the dollar, but Trump’s tariff warning sparks trade uncertainty. USD/CAD dips near 1.3600 as oil rebounds; AUD/USD slips below 0.6650. NZD/USD holds near 0.6050, GBP/USD steadies at 1.3650, and USD/CNY stays firm as PBOC signals caution. Markets eye ISM data and tariff updates for next moves.
By EBC
The Hang Seng index fell over 1% on Thursday after Wall Street hit a new peak. Trump announced the US-Vietnam trade deal.
On July 3, silver stays firm above $35.40 as Fed cut bets persist. EUR/USD holds near 1.1800, while GBP/USD lingers near 1.3585 ahead of UK jobs data. JPY strengthens after BoJ signals a hawkish pause. AUD/USD slips on weak trade surplus. Focus turns to US NFP and ISM data for market direction before the US holiday break.
By EBC
Trump's unstable tariff policy accelerates EU economic recovery, with increased investment inflows and ECB rate cuts stimulating growth.
By EBC
Indonesia’s nickel permit revocations in Raja Ampat raise ESG concerns and market risks—EBC analyses the impact on supply, prices, and policy credibility.
On July 2, the USD stabilizes as Fed rate cut bets build. GBP/USD nears 1.3750 highs, NZD/USD extends above 0.6120, and AUD/USD holds near 0.6820 despite soft retail sales. USD/JPY recovers to 146.20, while silver dips below $36. Markets await US labor data and Fed remarks for direction ahead of July 4.
By EBC
The yen steadied Wednesday as the dollar hovered near a 3-year low. The BOJ grows concerned over mixed inflation and weak consumer demand.
By EBC
EBC wins Best CFD Provider at the 2025 Online Money Awards, marking our first recognition for innovation, execution, and trader-first product design.
WTI dips below $64.50 as Middle East tensions ease, dampening supply fears. Silver struggles under $36, while AUD and NZD stay muted on weak China PMI. USD/JPY steadies near 145.90, and the yen holds gains on USD weakness. Traders now eye US ISM PMI and Fed minutes for clues on policy and market direction.
By EBC
EBC wins Most Trusted Broker and Best Trading Platform at the World Finance Forex Awards 2025, marking a third consecutive year of global industry recognition.
By Naga
Global markets found some calm last week as Iran-Israel tensions cooled off, dialing down the geopolitical risk. With the heat dying down, traders turned their eyes to PMI data and end-of-month moves.
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