Market Analysis
Global Currencies React to Shifting Trade Data and Central Bank Policies Amid Mixed Dollar Performan
The U.S. Dollar steadied near 100.00 as firm yields and weak Chinese trade data pressured risk currencies. The Aussie and Kiwi fell on slower export outlooks, while USD/CAD held near six-month highs. The Yen eased as BoJ stayed dovish. Traders now await U.S. inflation and sentiment data for the Fed’s next policy cues.
Markets traded cautiously as the U.S. shutdown hit record length, pressuring the Dollar near 100.00. Gold eased below $4,000 and silver held near $49 amid profit-taking. The Yen gained slightly on BoJ speculation, while the yuan steadied after a firmer PBoC fix. Traders await U.S. inflation data and Fed speeches for next policy cues.
By Pepperstone
Markets have focused intently on the Supreme Court hearing and the forthcoming ruling on Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs — a case that could potentially reshape U.S. trade policy, alter deficit projections, and inject a degree of uncertainty and volatility into global markets.
By Naga
NASDAQ 100 holds firm near 20,000 as buyers assess key support. Explore recent trends, potential rebound zones, and risk factors in tech stocks.
By Doo Prime
The short answer is not yet. But we’re getting closer.
The AI boom has been unstoppable. New chips, smarter models, and trillion-dollar valuations everywhere you look.
Investors are calling it “the next internet,” but history is flashing a warning: we’ve seen this before.
From soaring AI stocks to parabolic charts that echo the 1999 dot com bubble, the similarities are hard to ignore.
So, will this AI boom end with a quiet correction or a full-blown tech crash?
Let’s dig into the charts, the hype, and what voices like Bill Gates and Fed Chair Jerome Powell really think about today’s AI mania.
The AI Boom Feels Familiar
The rise of artificial intelligence stocks looks similar to the 1999 bubble.
Back then, the internet was “the future”. Today, it’s AI.
In both cases, investors poured billions into unproven business models.
Back then, it was websites. Now, it’s data centers, chips, and algorithms.
Still, not all hype ends the same way.
Unlike the dot com boom, today’s AI leaders such as Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD, Amazon, and Alphabet are profitable and cash-rich.
That’s a big difference from the 2000 bubble, when many firms didn’t even have revenue.
Could We Still See a Parabolic Move First?
Look at this chart.
The current AI market rally still sits below the 2000 peak when compared to the dot com bubble.
That means we could see one huge parabolic move to the upside before a potential AI stock crash.
That’s exactly how the internet bubble behaved:
- Tech stocks doubled in the final months of 1999.
- Then, the tech crash erased 78% of the Nasdaq by late 2002.
So while we may not be at the top yet, the setup looks familiar. A melt-up before the unwind.
The Nasdaq vs. Dow Ratio: Déjà Vu of 2000
The Nasdaq-to-Dow ratio tells a clear story.
AI-driven tech stocks have massively outperformed industrial and financial names, just like during the dot com boom.
Whenever that ratio spikes this sharply, history shows a correction usually follows.
But again, there’s a nuance. The AI bubble is built on real infrastructure spending, not just dreams.
Cloud computing, AI data centers, and chip demand are creating tangible growth, not vaporware.
Still, investor concentration in the top AI stocks, mainly Nvidia, Microsoft, and AMD, could mean any slowdown hits fast and hard.
Bill Gates Warns of an Early AI Bubble
Even Bill Gates sees signs of a potential bubble forming.
In an interview this month, he said we’re in the “early stages of an AI bubble.”
His reasoning is that too many startups are chasing the same goal. They are building AI tools that might never turn a profit.
History says that when every company claims to be “AI-powered,” a shakeout usually follows.
But Gates also pointed out that this time, the winners will be enormous.
Just like Amazon and Google survived the dot com crash, a few best AI stocks could define the next decade.
In his words: “We’ll see failures, but the survivors will redefine everything.”
Powell Pushes Back: “AI Is Not a Bubble”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disagrees.
He recently said AI is “not a bubble like the dot com era.”
His logic: productivity gains are measurable this time.
AI isn’t just hype, it’s driving real corporate investment, especially in automation, logistics, and software.
Powell’s view aligns with the Fed’s stance that the AI market boom is more structural than speculative.
In short: valuations are high, but fundamentals are stronger than 1999.
Still, bubbles often look rational right before they burst.
Why the AI Bubble Might Not Burst Yet
So, will the AI bubble burst?
Probably not right away.
History suggests that bubbles rarely die quietly.
They often end with a final blow-off phase, a euphoric rally before reality hits.
Right now, the market hasn’t shown that last phase yet.
Liquidity remains high, earnings from top artificial intelligence stocks are still growing, and retail FOMO hasn’t peaked.
In other words: the AI bubble burst may be coming, but the timing isn’t here yet.
We could see one more surge, especially if rate cuts arrive in 2025.
The Top AI Stocks Driving the Boom
If you pull up any AI stocks list, the same names dominate:
Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta.
Together, they make up a huge share of the S&P 500’s performance this year.
But that’s also the risk. If one cracks, the AI market crash could spread fast.
Investors are also piling into smaller Artificial Intelligence chipmakers and automation software companies, echoing the speculative wave of the dot com bubble.
Not all will survive.
How to Invest in Artificial Intelligence
If you’re wondering how to invest in artificial intelligence safely, think balance.
Instead of chasing parabolic moves, look for companies with real cash flow and product adoption.
Avoid overhyped names with little revenue, that’s where the bubble AI risk sits.
Diversification and patience matter more than timing the top.
As Gates hinted, the winners will likely become the next trillion-dollar giants.
But the road there will be volatile.
What Makes This Different from 1999
Despite the hype, there are crucial differences between now and the dot com bubble:
- Companies like Nvidia and Microsoft are profitable.
- AI adoption is already driving productivity.
- Global capital is more diversified.
Back in 1999, the internet was a promise.
Today, Artificial Intelligence is already an industry.
That doesn’t mean we’re safe. It just means the AI stock crash, if it comes, might look more like a rotation than a collapse.
Final Thoughts: A Bubble in Progress
So, is there an AI bubble?
Yes, but it’s still inflating.
Every revolution comes with speculation.
The 1999 bubble wiped out thousands of companies, yet it paved the way for trillion-dollar tech giants.
The Artificial Intelligence boom could do the same.
Some valuations will deflate, but innovation will outlast the noise.
We may be in the early innings of a bubble, not the end of one.
And if history repeats, the most painful corrections usually come after the biggest gains.By LiteFinance
At 02:30 (GMT+2), in Australia, September trade balance data will be released, an indicator that records the difference between payments for exported and imported goods. The surplus may increase from 1.825B Australian dollars to 3.860B Australian dollars, supporting the national currency.
Markets traded mixed as a possible U.S. government shutdown and easing U.S.-China tensions shaped sentiment. Gold climbed above $4,000 on safe-haven demand, WTI oil slipped near $60 on rising inventories, and GBP/USD fell to 1.3040 amid BoE caution. China’s tariff cuts boosted optimism, but traders remain wary ahead of key U.S. data.
Global FX markets opened cautiously as central banks set the tone. The Aussie briefly firmed after the RBA held rates at 3.6%, while the Yen strengthened on rising BoJ hike bets. GBP/USD steadied near 1.3150, EUR/JPY slipped to 177.00, USD/CAD stayed above 1.4050, and AUD/NZD hit a two-year high. Traders await U.S. jobs data for Fed clues.
By Naga
Markets stay steady as Big Tech earnings drive equities; gold dips and oil holds amid a strong dollar.
By FP Markets
Following a hawkish Fed rate cut, focus shifts to updates from the RBA and BoE, and US ISM and ADP numbers
Markets opened cautiously as investors sought safety in metals and watched OPEC+ signals. Gold held near $4,000 and silver at $49 amid safe-haven demand, while oil rebounded above $61 after OPEC+ paused planned output hikes. The Yen stayed weak on BoJ uncertainty, and the Yuan steadied on a firm PBoC fix. Traders eye key US data and Fed remarks this week.
By IC Markets
US Stocks Hit on Mixed Earnings and Fed – Nasdaq Down 1.57%
USDJPY Back in Focus for Longer-Term FX Players
Another Volatile Day Expected for Traders
Markets steadied as the US Dollar stayed firm after hawkish Fed remarks dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts. Gold hovered below $4,050 and silver near $49.00 amid cautious sentiment. The Aussie weakened on soft China data, while USD/JPY slipped as sticky Tokyo inflation revived BoJ shift bets. Traders await key US inflation and jobs data.
Global markets traded cautiously as the Trump–Xi meeting drew global attention, shaping risk sentiment and trade outlook. Gold held near $3,950 while silver steadied around $47.50. Risk currencies like AUD and NZD advanced on trade optimism, and USD softened ahead of key event updates. Traders await concrete signals to set November’s tone.
By Doo Prime
US stocks continued their record-setting streak on Tuesday, with all three major indexes closing higher for a third straight session.
Global markets are moving on trade optimism and fresh rate-cut hopes. Gold rebounded but stayed capped below highs, while silver eased under $47. Oil fell near $61.00 on OPEC+ supply hints, and NZD/USD rallied toward 0.5800 on risk-on flows. EUR/JPY slipped to 177.50 as yen strength followed a new US–Japan supply deal.
By Naga
Equities held steady, commodities split, and the dollar stayed strong this week. Read our detailed recap on market trends, bond yields, and highlights from NAGA’s top traders.
By Pepperstone
Weekend news has centred on the two days of talks between U.S. and Chinese trade representatives, with Scott Bessent stating on U.S. television that a deal is essentially good to go and set to be announced post Thursday's meeting between Trump and Xi, and that the threat of 100% additional tariffs is off the table. Risk assets and cyclical FX (AUD) already felt tailwinds through Friday’s session but should find further uplift in the early throes of the week.
Global markets traded cautiously as investors awaited the key US CPI inflation report for clues on the Fed’s next policy move. The Dollar stayed below 99.00, gold and silver softened, and AUD/NZD traded sideways amid thin volumes. A cooler CPI could lift metals and risk assets, while a hotter print may strengthen the greenback.
Global Markets Shift on US-China Trade Optimism and Softer US Inflation — Major Currencies React Acr
Global markets rallied on softer US inflation and optimism over US–China trade talks. Gold slipped to $4,065 as risk appetite improved, while the Dollar weakened below 99.00. EUR/USD and GBP/USD advanced on dovish Fed expectations, and the yuan steadied. Traders now eye policy cues and economic data for the next move.
Global markets traded cautiously as geopolitical tensions resurfaced. Gold eased below $4,250 but held support on risk-off sentiment, while silver climbed above $48.50 on mixed industrial and defensive demand. Oil surged past $60 after US sanctions on Russian energy firms sparked supply concerns. The Dollar steadied near 99.00 amid optimism on a US–China trade deal.
Markets traded cautiously as investors awaited UK inflation data, a key driver for the Bank of England’s next move. The Pound held firm ahead of CPI, oil extended gains on improving demand, and the US Dollar stayed soft. Broader sentiment was steady as easing US–China trade tensions balanced inflation-driven uncertainty.
By Headway
The US dollar remains firm; gold formed a Double Top; the Japanese yen weakened due to the new Prime Minister’s leadership.
The U.S. Dollar regained ground as easing U.S.–China trade tensions lifted risk appetite, pressuring gold and silver. Oil stayed weak amid oversupply, while the Aussie Dollar slipped with softer commodities. Markets now eye key U.S. inflation data and Fed minutes for cues on future rate direction and global risk sentiment.
By Pepperstone
Market sentiment was briefly shaken by concerns on the U.S. funding and credit markets, with renewed focus on US regional banks. After a spell of heightened cross-asset volatility — with the VIX index pushing up to 29%, those fears have since been repriced and sentiment has recovered, buyers of risk have regained their composure, and the broader tone in markets has since improved.
By Doo Prime
The crypto market just reminded everyone that volatility never really left.
19 billion US Dollars were wiped out in days as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins tumbled together, a full-blown crypto crash that sent traders scrambling and sentiment spiraling.
The Yen strengthened after BoJ signals progress toward its inflation goal, while the Aussie gained as China’s PBoC held rates steady. Political optimism in Japan and steady Asia risk sentiment lifted regional currencies. Gold eased, oil stayed soft, and markets await key US data and FOMC cues.
By FXPro
The crypto market capitalisation lost 2.3% from the previous day’s level to $3.75 trillion. The rebound on Sunday and Monday did not develop, and the 50-day moving average acted as local resistance.
By Headway
The first week of the earnings season is up. Learn what Q3 reports of Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup unveiled.
By OEXN
Goldman Sachs announced Tuesday it is on track for a record year in its investment banking and markets division, with third-quarter profits up 37% to $4.1 billion and revenue rising 20% to $15.18 billion — both beating expectations. However, operating expenses climbed 14%, and shares fell about 2%.
By VT Markets
Key Points
- USD/JPY slipped to 150.72, marking its third straight session of declines.
- Traders reversed yen shorts as political uncertainty rose after the coalition breakup.
Oil steadied near $58 after India halted Russian imports, easing supply fears. The US Dollar weakened as dovish Fed expectations lifted risk appetite and commodities. Gold surged above $4,200, while NZD and CAD gained on USD softness. Traders now eye Fed comments, US data, and EIA reports for market direction.
The US Dollar weakened after Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks fueled expectations of a year-end rate cut, lifting major currencies and risk sentiment. Oil stayed subdued near $58 amid oversupply worries, while GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD gained. Traders await key US data and FOMC minutes for policy confirmation.
Markets opened with cautious optimism as easing US–China tensions lifted sentiment. The US Dollar steadied above 99, oil rebounded near $59.50, and risk appetite improved modestly. Traders remain focused on Fed Chair Powell’s remarks and US inflation data for clarity on rate path and market direction this week.
By LiteFinance
At 05:00 (GMT+2), China will publish its October trade balance data. This indicator records the difference between payments for exported and imported goods. It may grow from 103.33B dollars, supporting the yuan.
By LiteFinance
At 13:00 (GMT+2), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release its monthly report, which tracks key market trends and provides a detailed analysis of the main factors affecting global energy demand, supply, and balance.
By Pepperstone
A renewed round of tariff threats from President Trump saw risk aversion dominate as last week drew to a close, amid ongoing political uncertainty elsewhere, as stocks on Wall Street notched their worst week since May. Looking ahead, trade headlines remain in focus, amid an ongoing data vacuum stemming from the US government shutdown, as Q3 earnings season gets underway.
By Naga
Markets held steady this week as gold hit $4K, oil rebounded, and the dollar stayed strong. Read the full NAGA Weekly Recap for key market insights.
Gold soared above $3,900 to record highs as US–China trade tensions and Fed rate-cut bets boosted safe-haven demand. Oil rebounded near $59.50 on easing trade fears, while the USD held mixed. Major currencies stayed range-bound as traders awaited key US data, Fed guidance, and trade developments for direction.
Silver surged above $49.50 to fresh highs on rising Fed rate-cut bets and safe-haven demand, while oil fell below $61.50 as Middle East tensions eased. The dollar stayed firm near multi-month highs, pressuring major currencies. Markets remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data and central bank guidance.
Markets traded cautiously ahead of the FOMC minutes as traders sought clues on Fed policy. The USD held firm, pressuring major peers. GBP, EUR, and AUD weakened, while NZD saw limited rebound. USD/JPY hit fresh highs on policy divergence. Overall sentiment stayed cautious with focus on Fed guidance and global risk trends.
The US Dollar strengthened as safe-haven demand and firmer yields lifted the greenback. Silver eased below $48.50, oil steadied near $61.50 after OPEC+’s modest hike, and the yen weakened to multi-month lows. With shutdown uncertainty and key US data ahead, traders remain cautious across commodities and FX.
By IC Markets
US stock indices fell in trading yesterday as the government shutdown continued with no sign of a resolution.
By FXPro
The crypto market capitalisation lost almost 3% in 24 hours, hitting a sell-off after a surge to historic highs at the start of the week.
By LiteFinance
At 08:00 (GMT+2), Germany will release August industrial production data, which tracks changes in the volume of goods and utilities produced in the country. The calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may change from 1.3% to –1.0% MoM, putting pressure on the euro.
The US Dollar strengthened as safe-haven demand and firmer yields lifted the greenback. Silver eased below $48.50, oil steadied near $61.50 after OPEC+’s modest hike, and the yen weakened to multi-month lows. With shutdown uncertainty and key US data ahead, traders remain cautious across commodities and FX.
A Tale of Two Currencies: USD Finds Footing as EUR and AUD Face Domestic Headwinds | 27th August 202
The US Dollar rebounds, pressuring gold below $1,950 and weighing on risk assets. AUD/USD holds near 0.6480 ahead of key CPI data, while EUR/USD slips toward 1.1630 amid French political uncertainty. USD/JPY trades above 147.50 but faces upside limits on Fed policy concerns. USD/CNY steady near 7.11 as PBOC defends yuan. Markets eye CPI and jobs data for next moves.
By VT Markets
The question isn’t whether altcoin season will happen. It’s when. Every major crypto cycle begins the same way: Bitcoin (BTC) leads, stabilises, and hands the rally baton to smaller coins.
By Naga
Get a complete weekly market recap: stocks, commodities, and forex moves, with the U.S. jobs report and Fed/ECB commentary driving investor sentiment.
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