ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations

ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations is announced by the European Central Bank. Usually if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

Most recent - Thursday 5 June 2025 12:15

Previous
2.4%
Forecast
2.15%
Actual
2.15%

Next event - Thursday 24 July 2025 12:15

Previous
2.15%
Forecast
2.15%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on EUR pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations is 2.15%.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations was 2.15% against a forecast of 2.15%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 5 June 2025 12:15
2.15%
2.15%
Thursday 17 April 2025 12:15
2.4%
2.4%
Thursday 6 March 2025 13:15
2.65%
2.65%
Thursday 30 January 2025 13:15
2.9%
2.9%
Thursday 12 December 2024 13:15
3.15%
3.15%
Thursday 17 October 2024 12:15
3.4%
3.4%
Thursday 12 September 2024 12:15
3.65%
3.65%
Thursday 18 July 2024 12:15
4.25%
4.25%
Thursday 6 June 2024 12:15
4.25%
4.25%
Thursday 11 April 2024 12:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 7 March 2024 13:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 25 January 2024 13:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 14 December 2023 13:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 26 October 2023 12:15
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 14 September 2023 12:15
4.25%
4.5%
Thursday 27 July 2023 12:15
4.25%
4.25%
Thursday 15 June 2023 12:15
4%
4%
Thursday 4 May 2023 12:15
3.75%
3.75%
Thursday 16 March 2023 13:15
3.5%
3.5%
Thursday 2 February 2023 13:15
3%
3%
Thursday 15 December 2022 13:15
2.5%
2.5%
Thursday 27 October 2022 12:15
2%
2%
Thursday 8 September 2022 12:15
1.25%
1.25%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for EUR. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations result:

PreviousLatest
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%0.1%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change-1.2%-1.3%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2.3%2.3%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)Bullish change1.7%1.8%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(no change)1.7%1.7%
ZEW Survey – Current SituationBullish change-72-59.5
ZEW Survey – Economic SentimentBullish change47.552.7
Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)Bullish change-2.2%1.7%
ZEW Survey – Economic SentimentBullish change35.336.1
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change2.2%2.3%
Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)Bullish change0.8%0.9%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(no change)0.1%0.1%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2%2%
Trade Balance s.a.Bullish change€15.8B€18.4B

About ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations

Country:Eurozone
Currency:EUR
Source:European Central Bank
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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